(Prof.Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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There is no reason for the West to consider Turkey as part of EU or to support in respect of any issues especially that are linked with regional issues in Middle East.
For decades Turkey was an ally of the West but could not claim any great contentment in the association. Being intermittently run by military juntas and even civilian regimes breathed under the perpetual threat of military coups, many big crimes or mistakes committed by it were assessed for a refined understanding of its mutation into a democracy that would position to link with rest of the world.
During the past 20 years the strategy for strengthening Turkey into a common alliance of European interests and values was put to hold out the purview of EU membership. The initial challenge of EU was to find a way to get rid of the various obstacles to the Turkish accession. Later on it was focused remorsefully in such a way that the obstacles could be used to deny Turkey full entry into EU.
Nicolas Sarkozy famously said that Turkey could not be in Europe because it was “in Asia Minor” though Britain, Spain and Italy took the contrary view. Only last November David Miliband, then British Foreign Secretary, reiterated strategic desire for Turkey to join the EU.
The “Neo-Ottomanism” of Turkey creating an orientation towards the Orient while Turkey came close with countries such as Syria and Iran and simultaneous weakening of alliances with the West, was visibly noticed by analysts around the world. Actually they wanted to see a democratic Turkey, leading by example in the region to its east and southeast.
The resolution at IAEA in Vienna,2009 sponsored by Germany had referred Iran’s nuclear programmes yet again into the U.N. Security Council. The resolution against Iran was backed by all five permanent members the U.N. Security Council. I think that only 3 Countries- Cuba, Venezuela and Malaysia had voted in favour of Iran while Turkey together with other five countries-Pakistan, Afghanistan, Egypt, South Africa and Brazil had abstained from voting. The resolution was endorsed by six world powers - the U.S., Russia, China, U.K , France and Germany which reflected a rare measure of unity on Iran. Though many diplomats had quoted that the large number of abstentions had indicated important developing states were souring on Iran over its nuclear defiance, particularly its hold-up of the fuel deal. They thought that the IAEA resolution could lead Iranian hardliners to seize on it as excuse to restrict inspections further and re-freeze talks, killing off the reactor fuel plan.
The most powerful nations are aware that both Brazil and Turkey being temporary members of the Security Council have been very critical of sanctions proposed against Iran. There was a U.S backed Plan wherein Iran initially agreed for swapping the LEU (Low Enriched Uranium) in return for the fuel for its medical reactors. After Iran’s U-Turn, U.S has been mustering rolls while initiating for fresh sanctions against Iran.
Now Iran has a fresh Nuke deal persuaded by Turkish and Brazilian diplomats for depositing part of Iran's LEU stockpile in Turkey in exchange for recognition of its contentious enrichment programme. While Washington was initially a silent spectator, U.S must have blessed the outreach and would silently premeditated for further sanctions proposed to the 15 member U.N Security Council! Brazil and Turkey can muster more support from the G-15 nations and prevail on the west to understand the situation and reach a consensus on issues. Turkey is deeply unconvinced of the fresh sanctions pursued against the Islamic republic.
West will imagine that Iran would have developed enough quantity of LEU stock into enriched uranium sufficient at levels needed for development of weapons as seven months were over after its U-turn from the U.S swap proposal. As per the present swap proposal, it may be the fact that fuel rods to be returned to Iran would contain material process to just below 20%. This has to dispel all apprehensions by west as enrichment up to 90% is needed to produce material for warheads.
Still the question unanswered areas are there.....how will Turkey enrich LEU as it has no full-fledged capacity or facility? It must have even agreed for the venue of fuel exchange; will it redirect the material to Brazil or to the Russia or France itself, the same nations where the LEU from Iran was proposed to be shipped as per the previous proposal? Why didn’t Brazil proposed for shipment of nuclear material to Argentina which has the capacity for enrichment?
The latest disturbance in Gaza will cause a unique harm to bilateral relations between Israel and Turkey. Turkey, though a Muslim state, had not much of issues and had sensibly good ties with Israel. Since many dead in the marine raid on the flotilla were Turkish nationals, Turkey was also in the forefront of urging the UNSC to condemn Israel's raid and set up a formal inquiry to hold those responsible for it accountable. Now the UNSCs attention will be seized by the subject of Israel’s military assault on the Aid vessel than sanctions against Iran.
Certainly a ‘Turkey’ factor against Israel is emerging out which will be advantageous for Iran. Let the U.S diplomacy find a way out for Israel to be eligible for the protection and compassion from Washington.
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