“Turkey” factor in Israel’s military raid on Gaza Flotilla and UNSC on Iran

“Turkey” factor in Israel’s military raid on Gaza Flotilla and UNSC on Iran

(Prof.Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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There is no reason for the West to consider Turkey as part of EU or to support in respect of any issues especially that are linked with regional issues in Middle East.

For decades Turkey was an ally of the West but could not claim any great contentment in the association. Being intermittently run by military juntas and even civilian regimes breathed under the perpetual threat of military coups, many big crimes or mistakes committed by it were assessed for a refined understanding of its mutation into a democracy that would position to link with rest of the world.

During the past 20 years the strategy for strengthening Turkey into a common alliance of European interests and values was put to hold out the purview of EU membership. The initial challenge of EU was to find a way to get rid of the various obstacles to the Turkish accession. Later on it was focused remorsefully in such a way that the obstacles could be used to deny Turkey full entry into EU.

Nicolas Sarkozy famously said that Turkey could not be in Europe because it was “in Asia Minor” though Britain, Spain and Italy took the contrary view. Only last November David Miliband, then British Foreign Secretary, reiterated strategic desire for Turkey to join the EU.

The “Neo-Ottomanism” of Turkey creating an orientation towards the Orient while Turkey came close with countries such as Syria and Iran and simultaneous weakening of alliances with the West, was visibly noticed by analysts around the world. Actually they wanted to see a democratic Turkey, leading by example in the region to its east and southeast.

The resolution at IAEA in Vienna,2009 sponsored by Germany had referred Iran’s nuclear programmes yet again into the U.N. Security Council. The resolution against Iran was backed by all five permanent members the U.N. Security Council. I think that only 3 Countries- Cuba, Venezuela and Malaysia had voted in favour of Iran while Turkey together with other five countries-Pakistan, Afghanistan, Egypt, South Africa and Brazil had abstained from voting. The resolution was endorsed by six world powers - the U.S., Russia, China, U.K , France and Germany which reflected a rare measure of unity on Iran. Though many diplomats had quoted that the large number of abstentions had indicated important developing states were souring on Iran over its nuclear defiance, particularly its hold-up of the fuel deal. They thought that the IAEA resolution could lead Iranian hardliners to seize on it as excuse to restrict inspections further and re-freeze talks, killing off the reactor fuel plan.

The most powerful nations are aware that both Brazil and Turkey being temporary members of the Security Council have been very critical of sanctions proposed against Iran. There was a U.S backed Plan wherein Iran initially agreed for swapping the LEU (Low Enriched Uranium) in return for the fuel for its medical reactors. After Iran’s U-Turn, U.S has been mustering rolls while initiating for fresh sanctions against Iran.

Now Iran has a fresh Nuke deal persuaded by Turkish and Brazilian diplomats for depositing part of Iran's LEU stockpile in Turkey in exchange for recognition of its contentious enrichment programme. While Washington was initially a silent spectator, U.S must have blessed the outreach and would silently premeditated for further sanctions proposed to the 15 member U.N Security Council! Brazil and Turkey can muster more support from the G-15 nations and prevail on the west to understand the situation and reach a consensus on issues. Turkey is deeply unconvinced of the fresh sanctions pursued against the Islamic republic.

West will imagine that Iran would have developed enough quantity of LEU stock into enriched uranium sufficient at levels needed for development of weapons as seven months were over after its U-turn from the U.S swap proposal. As per the present swap proposal, it may be the fact that fuel rods to be returned to Iran would contain material process to just below 20%. This has to dispel all apprehensions by west as enrichment up to 90% is needed to produce material for warheads.

Still the question unanswered areas are there.....how will Turkey enrich LEU as it has no full-fledged capacity or facility? It must have even agreed for the venue of fuel exchange; will it redirect the material to Brazil or to the Russia or France itself, the same nations where the LEU from Iran was proposed to be shipped as per the previous proposal? Why didn’t Brazil proposed for shipment of nuclear material to Argentina which has the capacity for enrichment?

The latest disturbance in Gaza will cause a unique harm to bilateral relations between Israel and Turkey. Turkey, though a Muslim state, had not much of issues and had sensibly good ties with Israel. Since many dead in the marine raid on the flotilla were Turkish nationals, Turkey was also in the forefront of urging the UNSC to condemn Israel's raid and set up a formal inquiry to hold those responsible for it accountable. Now the UNSCs attention will be seized by the subject of Israel’s military assault on the Aid vessel than sanctions against Iran.

Certainly a ‘Turkey’ factor against Israel is emerging out which will be advantageous for Iran. Let the U.S diplomacy find a way out for Israel to be eligible for the protection and compassion from Washington.
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Insecure Diplomatic Situation of Israel

Insecure Diplomatic Situation of Israel
( Prof.Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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The incidence of Israeli military boarding into one of the six vessels of Gaza aid flotilla with humanitarian aid killing nine civilians and wounding many has been condemned worldwide. The assault will certainly complicate the Obama administration’s efforts to improve ties with Israel and may even distract from the push to sanction Iran over its nuclear swap program with Turkey. Thus Iran has become a beneficiary from this incident.

Israel is already having a complaint when U.S too consented for the outcome of the just concluded NPT review summit at New York wherein the NPT regime had stressed Israel to join the Treaty but excluded from the Regional conference for CBMs in Middle East to be held in 2012. Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Barack Obama are having interface with each other at Washington on Tuesday 01 June, 2010 to discuss mainly on the peace process with the Palestinians and the resolution of the NPT review summit.

The timing of the Israel’s attacks on vessels in Gaza will add dimensions to the agenda for Obama’s meeting with Binyamin Netanyahu as a part of “kiss and make-up” session.

Iran, whose nuclear ambitions deeply concern Israeli leaders, must be happy. The latest disturbance will cause a unique harm to bilateral relations between Israel and Turkey. Turkey, though a Muslim state, has had close ties with Israel. Since many dead were Turkish nationals, in United Nations, Turkey's foreign minister had urged the UNSC to condemn Israel's raid and set up a formal inquiry to hold those responsible for it accountable. Further Turkey holds one of the rotating seats on the UN SC and was deeply unconvinced of the fresh sanctions pursued against the Islamic republic. Thus the UNSC’s attention will be seized by the Israel’s military assault on the Aid vessel.

At least nine civilians died and 30 more were wounded when the Israeli military boarded one of the six boats in a flotilla that had been seeking to run the Israeli blockade on Gaza, laden with humanitarian aid and activists from numerous countries.

Israel, which insists on inspecting all traffic into Gaza to prevent weapons from being smuggled in, said that armed people on the vessel attacked its soldiers as they rappelled onto the deck. Without high-level attention, the situation in Gaza, the narrow coastal area with 1.5 million people which was has faded from view is now getting undue attention. Apart from the sea raid, there will be focus into the issue of humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, which has been under Israeli blockade ever since the Hamas militant group seized power three years ago. Although the Obama administration has pressed quietly for less arduous restrictions on trade, it has not questioned Israeli policies. It seems that the U.S Special envoy George J. Mitchell had never been to Gaza despite paying around a dozen trips to Israel and the Palestinian territories.
In contrast to the forceful condemnations against Israel from all quarters, White House had mildly responded mentioning the tele-contact the President had with the Prime Minister of Israel who had expressed "deep regret at the loss of life" and "the importance of learning all the facts and circumstances around this morning's tragic events."

Even before the Monday's incident, Israel was already on an insecure diplomatic situation. After the government was accused of using forged foreign passports in the assassination of a Palestinian militant in Dubai, U.K had expelled an Israeli diplomat in March. Australia had done the same in the last week.

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India's Role In Iran's LEU Deal

India's Role In Iran's LEU Deal

(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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Iran had given a big shock to the west when it took a U-Turn from the earlier proposals to ship its stockpile of LEU,around 2640 pounds to Russia. and forward to France for conversion into 20% enriched plates for its medical reactor. Under the proposal, Russia have to convert much of Iran's enriched uranium into reactor fuel, and France have to take that material and fashion it into the 20% enriched plates to be used in the facility, which produces isotopes to detect and treat diseases.

The proposal was mainly focused to control and regulate potential of Iran at the threshold of weapon development. Iran bluntly backed off from the same. The International proliferation experts were stunned when Iran commenced enrichment signally that it can proceed for nuclear fuel for development of Atom Bomb!

India’s role in nuclear ambitions of Iran were over once we voted the German sponsored resolution at the IAEA at Vienna in Nov,2009 and referred it yet again to the Security Council. The IAEA resolution was endorsed by six world powers - the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - reflecting a rare measure of unity on Iran. It is to be noted that India with lot of apprehension cautioned against the resolution becoming the basis of a renewed punitive approach for fresh sanctions.White-House said the IAEA vote showed an urgent need for Iran to address the growing "deficit of confidence" over its nuclear intentions.

India voted in favour of the German sponsored resolution at the IAEA on referring the Iran’s nuclear programme yet again to the U.N Security Council. Of course India only joined with other 24 nations including U.S while voting for the resolution the nuclear watch-dog IAEA that censures Tehran’s ventures at Qom. India with lot of apprehension cautioned against the resolution becoming the basis of a renewed punitive approach for fresh sanctions. IAEA meeting in Vienna expressed serious concern on the potential military aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme. The resolution and the resulting vote of the IAEA’s decision making body comprising 35 nations became a historical event on the global nuclear scenario.

Prime Minister Man Mohan Sigh’s trip to U.S in November,2009 refined India’s stand on the controversial nuclear programmes of Iran that Tehran kept under wraps. The Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was in India to seek India’s support just before the Prime Minister’s U.S visit and India had already hinted that Iran cannot pursue nuclear power ambitions.

India had similarly voted against Iran in September 2005, shocking longstanding NAM allies by not abstaining, as had even Russia and China. In February 2006, the IAEA board had also passed a resolution against Iran. The IAEA’s outgoing Director General Md.El Baradei stated in his report that all efforts to negotiate with Iran to address the international community’s concern over its clandestine enrichment programme had reached a dead-end.

The world knows that even though India has not signed NPT, it had secured its nuclear deal with U.S and also concluded parallel agreements with Russia and France. Yet, India voted against Tehran at the same forum on Friday 27th November,2009 along with the votes of Russia and China, which had abstained in 2006 while assisting Iran against Western diplomatic moves aimed to stun the perceived Iranian moves at deviously building a nuclear weapon.

It is not a secret that India has not signed NPT, and will not become a signatory as a ‘non-nuclear nation’. Iran being a signatory state must abide by its obligations under the treaty not to venture for nuclear weapons, or in any manner become part of proliferation efforts.

While opting out of NPT, India has behaved with restraint on the issue of proliferation. For the past 60 years, it has campaigned against the idea of the nuclear weapon itself and has advocated annihilated stock-piles of bombs possessed by nuclear nations in a phased manner. Iran, on the other hand, has given signal for its mission to develop atomic weapons, although it denies this. India has certain apprehension and maintains reservations on Iran’s weapon programme.

Further Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities or its work on heavy-water related projects as required by the U.N. Security Council.

Being a Non-nuclear weapon state as per the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the signatory’s all civil nuclear programmes if any will be verified by IAEA .

The November,2009 IAEA resolution against Iran was backed by all five permanent members the U.N. Security Council. 3 Countries- Cuba, Venezuela and Malaysia voted in favour of Iran while 6 countries-Pakistan, Afghanistan, Egypt, South Africa and Brazil abstained from voting. India voted along with U.S, China and major powers in favour of the resolution sponsored by Germany on referring Iran’s nuclear programmes yet again into the U.N. Security Council. The resolution was endorsed by six world powers - the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - reflecting a rare measure of unity on Iran.

Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh informed at an interactive session at the Council for Foreign Relations in Washington that he had unambiguously explained on various occasions that India will not support nuclear weapon ambitions of Iran as it is a signatory to the NPT. “As such, it has all the rights that it got with this membership of the NPT, that is use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,” he added.

India had taken its final stand based on the latest report of IAEA Director General which highlighted on the non-compliance of the subsidiary safeguards arrangements. India found the genuine value in the report and thus mentioned in the explanation of vote-“The Agency’s safeguards system is the bedrock of the international community’s confidence that peaceful uses of nuclear energy and non-proliferation objectives can be pursued in a balanced manner. The integrity of this system should be preserved”

Even India cannot afford to see additional weapons’ powers in its neighborhood than already enough it has. India is very much discomfited by the A.Q. Khan disclosures that the rogue former Pakistan nuclear establishment chief had business links with Iran. Further there is a global concern that Iran due to its geographical location and its presence in the Gulf region as a member of OPEC, may use its nuclear power and possession of bombs for its influence in the region. Even it will lead to acquisition of nuclear weapons by some Arab nations which are prone to use it obstinately. Nuclear weapons of mass destruction will de-stabilize the oil-rich Gulf region, with a negative impact on Asia’s, particularly India’s long-term energy supplies.

IAEA meeting in Vienna had expressed serious concern on the potential military aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme. The resolution and the resulting vote of the IAEA’s decision making body comprising 35 nations became a historical event on the global nuclear scenario. U.S officials are of view that the large number of abstentions indicated that important developing states were sour on Iran over its nuclear defiance, particularly its hold-up of the fuel deal.

It is to be noted that the IAEA resolution against Iran was backed by all five permanent members the U.N. Security Council. 3 Countries-Cuba, Venezuela and Malaysia voted in favour of Iran while 6 countries-Pakistan, Afghanistan, Egypt, South Africa and Brazil abstained from voting.

RUSSIA and CHINA have acted as a traditional haul on efforts to punish Iran for its nuclear defiance, either preventing new Security Council sanctions or watering down their potency. They did not formally endorse the last IAEA resolution in 2006, which referred Iran to the Security Council, starting the process that has resulted in three sets of sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Their backing for the document at the Vienna in 2009 Meeting thus reflected broad international bitterness with Tehran. It also appeared to signal possible support for any new Western push for a fourth set of U.N sanctions, should Tehran continue shunning international overtures meant to reach agreements that reduce concerns about its nuclear ambitions. It was fact that Iran did divide the world community all these years. The overwhelming vote at the IAEA proved the unity and strength of the international community against the nuclear adventures of Iran.

South-South co-operation is for finding solutions common to the developing nations. Iran rightly seized the opportunity while hosting the G-15 summit. Also it did mobilize support to endure the threat of fresh sanctions against nuclear adventures.

Brazil and Turkey being temporary members of the Security Council have been very critical of sanctions proposed against Iran. There was a U.S backed Plan wherein Iran initially agreed for swapping the LEU (Low Enriched Uranium) in return for the fuel for its medical reactors. Iran finally took a U-turn and wanted the swap inside the Iranian soil only! After this incident, U.S has been mustering rolls while initiating for fresh sanctions against Iran. Now Iran is persuaded by Turkish and Brazilian diplomats for depositing part of Iran's LEU stockpile abroad in exchange for recognition of their contentious enrichment programme, While Washington acted as a silent spectator, U.S must have blessed the outreach and would have silently premeditated for further sanctions proposed to the 15 member U.N Security Council!

As Brazil is the latest entrant as major player on the international stage and the talks between President De Silva with Iranian President Md. Ahmedinejad indicated a stand against U.S dominion. U.S would know that Iran was buying time while moving closer to develop nuclear weapon. Brazil took a big risk when it may even have to alienate from the U.S, the most powerful nation in the world. Brazilian President demonstrated to be bold enough and challenge U.S on critical issues from Trade to Climate Change and also on Coup in Honduras to never ending embargo against Cuba.

President De Silva of Brazil is proved to be a new international leader in the making by associating with Turkish P.M and successfully arriving at a deal wherein Iran has to swap the LEU with Turkey. Iran on Monday 17th May,2010 signed a nuclear fuel swap deal under which it will ship 1,200 kilogrammes of low enriched uranium to Turkey, to help end Tehran's stand-off with the West over its atomic programme.

The agreement, under which Iran will receive nuclear fuel for its reactors, was signed between foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey and Brazil. Iran will ship 1,200 kilogrammes of low-enriched uranium to Turkey, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told a news conference after the deal was sealed following an 18 hour marathon talks.

The agreement was brokered by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan who flew to Tehran on 16th May,2010 to join negotiations with Iranian officials in what western and Russian authorities have maintained was last chance to avoid fresh UN sanctions against Iran.

Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim had said that the agreement should "satisfy" international community that no further sanctions are required. He said that the 3-way fuel swap deal reached officially recognises Iran's right for peaceful nuclear energy and enrichment and indicates that "there is still time for diplomacy and dialogue". He wanted that Iran, global community and the P5+1 should raise their confidence level.

Commenting on the fuel swap deal, the Brazilian minister reaffirmed that the agreement followed two major goals -- admitting Iran's right to benefit from nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and the need for Iran to provide global community with guarantees in connection with its nuclear programme.

As per the current proposal, the material returned to Iran as fuel rods could not be processed beyond its lower and safer levels that are suitable for use in the Tehran research reactor. The fuel rods would contain material process to just below 20%. This will dispel all apprehensions by west as enrichment upto 90% is needed to produce material for warheads. This deal must be enough to ease the international standoff over the disputed nuclear programme, while pressure was mounting for fresh sanctions. The present deal to ship most of the LEU to Turkey as a swap deal will deprive Iran at least provisionally of nuclear stock that could be processed for enrichment needed for weapon development. A month after the final agreement.LEU enriched to a level of 3.5% has to be sent to Turkey where it has to be stored under the joint supervision of Iran and IAEA.

Both Brazil and Turkey though not permanent members of the Security Council, proved their mettle for resisting pressure from U.S which had been pursuing for fresh sanctions as Iran did not heeded to the caution to impede enrichment.

President DeSilva must use his high office to help Iran to prevail on holding talks with the US, Russia, France and the IAEA about the new deal. The Iranian President rightly anticipated that it is time for 5+ 1 countries to enter talks with Iran based on honesty, justice and mutual respect.

The question unanswered now is that how will Turkey enrich LEU? It must have even agreed for the venue of fuel exchange; will it redirect the material to Brazil or to the Russia or France itself, the same nations where the LEU from Iran was proposed to be shipped as per the previous proposal? Why didn’t Brazil proposed for shipment of nuclear material to Argentina which has the capacity for enrichment? Ironically Iran’s medical reactor was built with U.S assistance prior to the 1979 revolution!